Seasonal Prediction Model Intercomparison (SMIP)

Ken Sperber (

The CLIVAR Working Group on Seasonal to Interannual Prediction (WGSIP) has initiated two experimental protocols using atmospheric general circulation models to investigate: (1) potential seasonal
predictability (SMIP-2) using observed SST, and (2) actual predictability using forecast SST (SMIP-2/HFP). Modelling groups may participate in either or both protocols. The basic experiment calls for ensembles of integrations, differing only by their initial conditions, for each season for 1979-2000.

Results regarding the predictability of the Asian summer monsoon have been published based on a pilot SMIP project:

Sperber, K. R., C. Brankovic, M. Deque, C. S. Frederiksen, R. Graham, A. Kitoh, C. Kobayashi, T. N. Palmer, K. Puri, W. Tennent, and E. Volodin, 2001: Dynamical Seasonal Predictability of the Asian Summer Monsoon. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 2226-2248.

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Updated 4/24/03